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News » Bill Conlin: The early line on candidates for fifth spot in Phillies rotation


Bill Conlin: The early line on candidates for fifth spot in Phillies rotation


Bill Conlin: The early line on candidates for fifth spot in Phillies rotation
IF IT COMPETES ON two or four legs, runs for office, coaches, manages or stirs an even remote wagering interest, odds are excellent there will be odds posted somewhere.

You're surely aware that moments after he took the oath of office, President Obama was installed as a minus-140 favorite to repeat in 2012. Mitt Romney is next at plus-1600, followed by Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at plus-2000. Where do I get down?

Before the last fingers were pointed, the Eagles were installed at 12-1 to win the 2009-10 Super Bowl and are No. 4 choice behind the Giants, Cowboys and Panthers to win the NFC title next year at 6-1.

So, bored stiff on No Football Sunday, the NFL's day of atonement, I'm giving a nod to what figures to be an ongoing conversation topic and daily note next month during Phillies spring training. Oh, there could be a competition of sorts for the interim second-base job between Marcus Giles, Eric Bruntlett and top prospect Jason Donald should Chase Utley need more time than estimated for his rehab from hip-labrum surgery.

But there appears to be a genuine competition brewing between five pitchers for the fifth spot in manager Charlie Manuel's starting rotation behind Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton. And here is my Early Line, 20 days before pitchers and catchers report to the spring training home of the world champion Philadelphia Phillies in Clearwater, Fla.

Chan Ho Park, RHP2-1

J.A. Happ, LHP5-2

Carlos Carrasco, RHP10-1

Kyle Kendrick, RHP20-1

Adam Eaton, RHP200-1

I set the odds based on my perceptions of track record and fit in the rotation, realizing there may be pre-emptive political and organizational considerations. In major league Baseball, "The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet it," as Damon Runyon wrote. The form chart:

Chan Ho ParkThe Korean national hero has won more than 12 games six times and is 30 games over .500 in those years, including 18-10 for the Dodgers in 2000. In those six seasons, Chan Ho averaged 203 innings pitched. At age 35, he is a durable 200-pounder whose fastball still sits in the 94 mph range. A career problem, however, has been leaving too many pitches, particularly breaking balls, in the nitro zone. That could be problematic for Park in a park that terminates hanging curves with extreme prejudice. One reason I set Chan Ho as the favorite is commitment. He wept in Korea early in the month when announcing he would not pitch for his country in the WBC tournament. Reason: He wishes to focus his energy on a goal of becoming a starter again after a successful but unfulfilling season as a Dodgers setup man. The Phillies are believed to have offered Park the chance to make the rotation. But . . . with suspended J.C. Romero out for the first 50 games, it would seem Chan Ho will be called on to pick up some of Romero's innings. We'll see. Manuel didn't exactly salute when I told him my pecking order during a Saturday night conversation.

J.A. HappI covered a lot of lousy Phillies teams where a pitcher of Happ's pedigree and stuff could have been a No. 2 or 3. The 1971 Phillies were a case in point. The staff ace on a 95-loss team was Rick Wise - traded a year later for Steve Carlton. Wise was 17-14, including the historic no-hitter where he hit two homers. The rest of a rotation that included way-over-the-hill Jim Bunning and Chris Short was a brutal 22-49. Isn't it nice to have a team so good that a pitcher who led the International League in strikeouts will compete for a starting job? Happ appears to be the guy the Baseball people hope makes it a no-brainer decision.

Carlos CarrascoHe is the pitching crown jewel of the system, no doubt. But he is still a young pitcher and the minor league people don't want to hurry him. Manuel has ESPN Deportes on his Winter Haven, Fla., cable system and was able to see Carrasco pitch for Caracas in the Venezuelan Winter League. "I saw Carlos maybe three times," the manager said. "He pitched good but gave up a homer once, was just so-so another time and was really good one time." The wiry 6-3 righthander was 3-0 for the regular-season champion Leones with an eye-popping 2.12 ERA. The plan is for Carlos to spend the season in Triple A. But an injury to any of the starters could jump-start his major league debut.

Kyle KendrickWent from unexpected darling of the 2007 staff to a post-All Star break suspect who lost his job even faster than he lost control of his sinker in 2008. The righthander with subpar stuff but a fighting heart and cool demeanor is on the bubble to make the ballclub, let alone win a starting job, and is probably being shopped. Kyle will be given a chance to compete, however, and competing has been his long suite. Kendrick's most damning 2008 number: 194 hits allowed in 155 2/3 innings pitched. Brutal.

Adam EatonWhy even include a pitcher who will make $8.5 million in the final year of a 3-year deal that was general manager Pat Gillick's worst? Ruben Amaro says Eaton is not a candidate to start. Two reasons: Jamie Moyer is 46 years old; and 2 years ago, some kid named Kendrick, known only to friends, family and Baseball America subscribers, came up for one emergency start because he could throw strikes and hung around to win 10 games.

Or to quote those "two" famous Joaquin Andujar words: You never know. *

Send e-mail to bill1chair@aol.com.

For recent columns, go to

http://go.philly.com/conlin.


Author:Fox Sports
Author's Website:http://www.foxsports.com
Added: January 26, 2009

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